Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
Derek P. Tittensor
(1)
,
Camilla Novaglio
(2)
,
Cheryl S. Harrison
(3, 4)
,
Ryan F. Heneghan
(5)
,
Nicolas Barrier
(6)
,
Daniele Bianchi
(7)
,
Laurent Bopp
(8)
,
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
(1)
,
Gregory L. Britten
(9)
,
Matthias Büchner
(10)
,
William W. L. Cheung
(11, 12)
,
Villy Christensen
(12, 11)
,
Marta Coll
(13)
,
John P. Dunne
(14)
,
Tyler D. Eddy
(15)
,
Jason D. Everett
(16, 17, 18)
,
Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador
(19, 20)
,
Elizabeth A. Fulton
(2, 17)
,
Eric D. Galbraith
(21, 22)
,
Didier Gascuel
(23)
,
Jerome Guiet
(6, 7)
,
Jasmin G. John
(14)
,
Jason S. Link
(24)
,
Olivier Maury
(6)
,
Heike K. Lotze
(1)
,
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
(25)
,
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
(11, 26)
,
Colleen M. Petrik
(27)
,
Hubert Du Pontavice
(23, 28)
,
Jonathan Rault
(29)
,
Anthony J. Richardson
(30)
,
Lynne Shannon
(25)
,
Yunne-Jai Shin
(6)
,
Jeroen Steenbeek
,
Charles A. Stock
(14)
,
Julia L. Blanchard
(31)
1
Dalhousie University [Halifax]
2 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Hobart]
3 UTRGV - University of Texas Rio Grande Valley [Brownsville, TX]
4 LSU - Louisiana State University
5 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
6 UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
7 UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles]
8 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
9 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
10 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
11 UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada]
12 Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
13 ICM - Instituto de Ciencias del Mar de Barcelona
14 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
15 CFER - Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research
16 UQ [All campuses : Brisbane, Dutton Park Gatton, Herston, St Lucia and other locations] - The University of Queensland
17 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
18 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
19 BRTA - Basque Research and Technology Alliance
20 AZTI - Tecnalia
21 ICREA - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
22 McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
23 ESE - Écologie et santé des écosystèmes
24 NMFS - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service
25 University of Cape Town
26 University of Wisconsin-Madison
27 Texas A&M University [College Station]
28 Princeton University
29 IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer
30 University of Aberdeen
31 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology
2 UTAS - University of Tasmania [Hobart]
3 UTRGV - University of Texas Rio Grande Valley [Brownsville, TX]
4 LSU - Louisiana State University
5 QUT - Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane]
6 UMR MARBEC - MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation
7 UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles]
8 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
9 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
10 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
11 UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada]
12 Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
13 ICM - Instituto de Ciencias del Mar de Barcelona
14 GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
15 CFER - Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research
16 UQ [All campuses : Brisbane, Dutton Park Gatton, Herston, St Lucia and other locations] - The University of Queensland
17 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
18 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
19 BRTA - Basque Research and Technology Alliance
20 AZTI - Tecnalia
21 ICREA - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
22 McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]
23 ESE - Écologie et santé des écosystèmes
24 NMFS - NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service
25 University of Cape Town
26 University of Wisconsin-Madison
27 Texas A&M University [College Station]
28 Princeton University
29 IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer
30 University of Aberdeen
31 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology
Nicolas Barrier
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 4476
- IdHAL : nicolas-barrier
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1693-4719
- IdRef : 182881601
Marta Coll
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1181090
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6235-5868
- IdRef : 19296657X
John P. Dunne
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 773112
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8794-0489
Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador
- Fonction : Auteur
Didier Gascuel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 750985
- IdHAL : didier-gascuel
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5447-6977
- IdRef : 030710383
Olivier Maury
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1143774
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7999-9982
- IdRef : 08128067X
Jeroen Steenbeek
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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