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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Derek P. Tittensor 1 Camilla Novaglio 2 Cheryl S. Harrison 3, 4 Ryan F. Heneghan 5 Nicolas Barrier 6 Daniele Bianchi 7 Laurent Bopp 8 Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz 1 Gregory L. Britten 9 Matthias Büchner 10 William W. L. Cheung 11, 12 Villy Christensen 12, 11 Marta Coll 13 John P. Dunne 14 Tyler D. Eddy 15 Jason D. Everett 16, 17, 18 Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador 19, 20 Elizabeth A. Fulton 2, 17 Eric D. Galbraith 21, 22 Didier Gascuel 23 Jerome Guiet 6, 7 Jasmin G. John 14 Jason S. Link 24 Olivier Maury 6 Heike K. Lotze 1 Kelly Ortega-Cisneros 25 Juliano Palacios-Abrantes 11, 26 Colleen M. Petrik 27 Hubert Du Pontavice 23, 28 Jonathan Rault 29 Anthony J. Richardson 30 Lynne Shannon 25 Yunne-Jai Shin 6 Jeroen Steenbeek Charles A. Stock 14 Julia L. Blanchard 31 
Abstract : Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Soumis le : jeudi 16 juin 2022 - 10:34:06
Dernière modification le : vendredi 5 août 2022 - 10:51:33

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Derek P. Tittensor, Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, et al.. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 11 (11), pp.973--981. ⟨10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9⟩. ⟨hal-03475045⟩

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