Multiscale Agricultural Commodities Forecasting using Wavelet-SARIMA Process
Résumé
Forecasts of spot or future prices for agricultural commodities make it possible to anticipate the favorable
or above all unfavorable development of future profits from the exploitation of agricultural farms
or agri-food enterprises. Previous research has shown that cyclical behavior is a dominant feature
of the time series of prices of certain agricultural commodities, which may be affected by a seasonal
component. Wavelet analysis makes it possible to capture this cyclicity by decomposing a time series
into its frequency and time domains. This paper proposes a time-frequency decomposition based approach
to choose a seasonal auto-regressive aggregate (SARIMA) model for forecasting the monthly
prices of certain agricultural futures prices. The originality of the proposed approach is due to the
identification of the optimal combination of the wavelet transformation type, the wavelet function and
the number of decomposition levels used in the multi-resolution approach (MRA), that significantly
increase the accuracy of the forecast. Our SARIMA hybrid approach contributes to take into account
the cyclicity and of the seasonality when predicting commodity prices. As a relevant result, our study
allows an economic agent, according to his forecasting horizon, to choose according to the available
data, a specific SARIMA process for forecasting.
Fichier principal
A_hybrid_model_Wavelets_Sarima_for_forecasting_of_commodities_prices__3_ (1).pdf (1.14 Mo)
Télécharger le fichier
Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
---|