Change in seasonal rainfall variability of Northern Algeria

Abstract : This work aims to evaluate regional climate models of Ensemble project to reproduce the seasonal rainfall variability of Northern Algeria (coastal basins). Models are firstly validated over the reference period 1961-1990 and then future seasonal rainfall variability is analyzed over two projection periods: 2021-2050and 2070-2099. Simulated data have been extracted from 10 regional models and compared to the observed data using the “bias method”. It is the difference between simulated and observed data. This method gives an overview of percentage of overestimation (underestimation) of models to the observed data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test has been used to test the significance of the difference between simulated and observed data.Generally, it appears that models underestimate the wet season and overestimate the dry season over the control period 1961-1990. Only four models have been validated to be used in projection as regional models, namely: CNRM, CHMI, GKSS and ETHZ regional models.All models simulate a significant decrease of future rainfall in winter and spring seasons over the two projected periods. This reduction is about 30% to 60%, knowing that winter and spring constitute more than 60% of annual rainfall in Northern Algeria. In autumn, some models simulate anincrease in rainfall and otherssimulate the reduction in rainfallin future. This difference is linked to the spatial distribution of rain gauge stations. It is the same behavior for summer season.
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02135412
Contributeur : Mélanie Karli <>
Soumis le : mardi 21 mai 2019 - 11:48:36
Dernière modification le : mardi 28 mai 2019 - 13:48:10

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  • HAL Id : hal-02135412, version 1

Citation

S. Taibi, M. Meddi, Mahé Gil. Change in seasonal rainfall variability of Northern Algeria. Conférence Internationale sur l'Hydrologie des Grands Bassins Fluviaux de l'Afrique, Oct 2015, Hammamet, Tunisia. ⟨hal-02135412⟩

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