Ensemble model to enhance robustness of flash flood forecasting using an Artificial Neural Network: case-study on the Gardon Basin (south-eastern France)
Modelo de “ensemble” para incrementar la robusted de la predicción de avenidas utilizando redes neuronales artificiales: aplicación a la cuenca Gardon (sureste de Francia)
Résumé
During the last few decades neural networks have been increasingly used in hydrological modelling for their fundamental property of parsimony and of universal approximation of non-linear functions. For the purpose of flash flood forecasting, feed-forward and recurrent multi-layer perceptrons appear to be efficient tools. Nevertheless, their forecasting performances are sensitive to the initialization of the network parameters. We have studied the cross-validation efficiency to select initialization providing the best forecasts in real time situation. Sensitivity to initialization of feed-forward and recurrent models is compared for one-hour lead-time forecasts. This study shows that cross-validation is unable to select the best initialization. A more robust model has been designed using the median of several models outputs; in this context, this paper analyses the design of the ensemble model for both recurrent and feed-forward models.
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