Ensemble model to enhance robustness of flash flood forecasting using an Artificial Neural Network: case-study on the Gardon Basin (south-eastern France)

Abstract : During the last few decades neural networks have been increasingly used in hydrological modelling for their fundamental property of parsimony and of universal approximation of non-linear functions. For the purpose of flash flood forecasting, feed-forward and recurrent multi-layer perceptrons appear to be efficient tools. Nevertheless, their forecasting performances are sensitive to the initialization of the network parameters. We have studied the cross-validation efficiency to select initialization providing the best forecasts in real time situation. Sensitivity to initialization of feed-forward and recurrent models is compared for one-hour lead-time forecasts. This study shows that cross-validation is unable to select the best initialization. A more robust model has been designed using the median of several models outputs; in this context, this paper analyses the design of the ensemble model for both recurrent and feed-forward models.
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02087043
Contributeur : Mélanie Karli <>
Soumis le : lundi 1 avril 2019 - 17:18:37
Dernière modification le : mardi 28 mai 2019 - 13:48:10

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T. Darras, A. Johannet, B. Vayssade, L. Kong-A-Siou, S. Pistre. Ensemble model to enhance robustness of flash flood forecasting using an Artificial Neural Network: case-study on the Gardon Basin (south-eastern France). Boletin Geologico y Minero, 2018, 129 (3), pp.565-578. ⟨10.21701/bolgeomin.129.3.007⟩. ⟨hal-02087043⟩

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