Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert 1 Timothy Baker Kyle Dexter Simon Lewis Roel Brienen 2 Ted Feldpausch Jon Lloyd 3 Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza 4 Luzmila Arroyo 5 Esteban Alvarez-Davila 6 Niro Higuchi 7 Beatriz Marimon Ben Hur Marimon 8 Marcos Silveira Emilio Vilanova 9 Emanuel Gloor 2 Yadvinder Malhi Jerôme Chave Jos Barlow Damien Bonal Nallaret Davila Cardozo Terry Erwin Sophie Fauset Bruno Hérault 10 Susan Laurance Lourens Poorter 11 Lan Qie Clement Stahl Martin Sullivan Hans ter Steege 12 Vincent Antoine Vos Pieter Zuidema Everton Almeida Edmar Almeida de Oliveira Ana Andrade Simone Aparecida Vieira Luiz Aragão Alejandro Araujo-Murakami Eric Arets Gerardo Aymard Christopher Baraloto 13 Plinio Barbosa Camargo Jorcely G Barroso Frans Bongers Rene Boot José Luís Camargo Wendeson Castro Victor Chama Moscoso James Comiskey Fernando Cornejo Valverde Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa Jhon del Aguila Pasquel Anthony Di Fiore Luisa Fernanda Duque Fernando Elias Julien Engel 14 David Galbraith Rafael Herrera Fernández Eurídice Honorio Coronado Wannes Hubau Eliana Jimenez-Rojas Adriano José Nogueira Lima Ricardo Keichi Umetsu William Laurance Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez Thomas Lovejoy Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz Paulo Morandi David Neill Percy Núñez Vargas Nadir C. Pallqui Camacho Alexander Parada Gutierrez Guido Pardo Julie Peacock 1 Marielos Peña‐claros Maria Cristina Peñuela‐mora Pascal Petronelli Georgia Pickavance Nigel Pitman Adriana Prieto Carlos Quesada Hirma Ramírez-Angulo Maxime Réjou-Méchain 15 Zorayda Restrepo Correa Anand Roopsind Agustín Rudas Natalino Silva Javier Silva Espejo James Singh Juliana Stropp John Terborgh Raquel Thomas Marisol Toledo Armando Torres-Lezama Luis Valenzuela Gamarra Peter J. van de Meer Geertje van der Heijden Peter van der Hout 16 Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez Cesar Vela Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira Oliver L. Phillips
Abstract : Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.
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Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Timothy Baker, Kyle Dexter, Simon Lewis, Roel Brienen, et al.. Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Global Change Biology, Wiley, 2018, 25 (1), pp.39-56. ⟨10.1111/gcb.14413⟩. ⟨hal-02052715⟩

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