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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Année : 2021

Changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Matthew Collins
  • Fonction : Auteur
Boris Dewitte
Christina Karamperidou
  • Fonction : Auteur
Malte F. Stuecker
  • Fonction : Auteur
Lixin Wu
  • Fonction : Auteur
Benjamin Ng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fan Jia
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yun Yang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jun Ying
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xiao-Tong Zheng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Bolan Gan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tao Geng
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yoo-Geun Ham
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hyun-Su Jo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xichen Li
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xiaopei Lin
Shayne Mcgregor
Jae-Heung Park
  • Fonction : Auteur
Li Zhang
Wenxiu Zhong
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has global climatic implications, necessitating understanding of its observed and projected changes. This Review brings together knowledge of ENSO in a warming climate, revealing projected increases in ENSO magnitude, as well as ENSO-related rainfall and sea surface temperature variability. Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections - the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

Dates et versions

hal-03411113 , version 1 (02-11-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Matthew Collins, Boris Dewitte, Christina Karamperidou, et al.. Changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2021, 2 (9), pp.628--644. ⟨10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z⟩. ⟨hal-03411113⟩
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