Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species - Université de Montpellier Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Diversity and Distributions Année : 2021

Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

Milan Chytrý
Wayne Dawson
Franz Essl
Trevor Fristoe
Rense Haveman
Florian Jansen
Bernd Lenzner
Jesper Erenskjold Moeslund
Jan Pergl
Jens-Christian Svenning
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1084037
Wilfried Thuiller
Qiang Yang

Résumé

Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Pouteau_etal_Diversity_Distribution_2021.pdf (971.55 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03299311 , version 1 (26-07-2021)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Robin Pouteau, Idoia Biurrun, Caroline Brunel, Milan Chytrý, Wayne Dawson, et al.. Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species. Diversity and Distributions, 2021, 27 (11), pp.2063-2076. ⟨10.1111/ddi.13378⟩. ⟨hal-03299311⟩
117 Consultations
50 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More