Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient
Viktoriia Radchuk
(1)
,
Thomas Reed
(2)
,
Céline Teplitsky
(3, 4)
,
Martijn van de Pol
(5)
,
Anne Charmantier
(3)
,
Christopher Hassall
(6)
,
Peter Adamik
(7)
,
Frank Adriaensen
(8)
,
Markus Ahola
(9)
,
Peter Arcese
(10)
,
Jesús Miguel Avilés
(11)
,
Javier Balbontin
(12)
,
Karl Berg
(13)
,
Antoni Borras
(14)
,
Sarah Burthe
(15)
,
Jean Clobert
(16)
,
Nina Dehnhard
(8)
,
Florentino de Lope
(17)
,
André Dhondt
(18)
,
Niels Dingemanse
(19)
,
Hideyuki Doi
(20)
,
Tapio Eeva
(21)
,
Joerns Fickel
(1)
,
Iolanda Filella
(22)
,
Frode Fossøy
(23, 24)
,
Anne Goodenough
(25)
,
Stephen J.G. Hall
(26)
,
Bengt Hansson
(27)
,
Michael Harris
(15)
,
Dennis Hasselquist
(27)
,
Thomas Hickler
(28)
,
Jasmin Joshi
(29, 30)
,
Heather Kharouba
(31)
,
Juan Gabriel Martínez
(32)
,
Jean-Baptiste Mihoub
(33)
,
James Mills
,
Mercedes Molina-Morales
(17)
,
Arne Moksnes
(34)
,
Arpat Ozgul
(35)
,
Deseada Parejo
(17)
,
Philippe Pilard
(36)
,
Maud Poisbleau
(8)
,
François Rousset
(37)
,
Mark-Oliver Rödel
(38)
,
David Scott
(39)
,
Juan Carlos Senar
(14)
,
Constantí Stefanescu
(22)
,
Bård Stokke
(34, 23)
,
Tamotsu Kusano
(40)
,
Maja Tarka
(27)
,
Corey Tarwater
(41)
,
Kirsten Thonicke
(42)
,
Jack Thorley
(43, 44)
,
Andreas Wilting
(1)
,
Piotr Tryjanowski
(45)
,
Juha Merilä
(46)
,
Ben Sheldon
(47)
,
Anders Pape Møller
(48)
,
Erik Matthysen
(8)
,
Fredric Janzen
(49)
,
F. Stephen Dobson
(50)
,
Marcel Visser
(5)
,
Steven Beissinger
(51)
,
Alexandre Courtiol
(1)
,
Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
(1, 52)
1
IZW -
Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
2 UCC - University College Cork
3 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
4 UM - Université de Montpellier
5 NIOO-KNAW - Netherlands Institute of Ecology
6 University of Leeds
7 Palacky University Olomouc
8 UA - University of Antwerp
9 NRM - Swedish Museum of Natural History
10 Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
11 EEZA - Experimental Station of Arid Zones
12 Universidad de Sevilla = University of Seville
13 UTRGV - University of Texas Rio Grande Valley [Brownsville, TX]
14 Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona
15 UKCEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
16 SETE - Station d'écologie théorique et expérimentale
17 UEX - Universidad de Extremadura - University of Extremadura
18 Cornell University [New York]
19 LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians University [Munich]
20 University of Hyogo
21 University of Turku
22 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries = Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals
23 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
24 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim]
25 University of Gloucestershire [Gloucester]
26 EMU - Estonian University of Life Sciences
27 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
28 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
29 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
30 Institute for Landscape and Open Space
31 University of Ottawa [Ottawa]
32 UGR - Universidad de Granada = University of Granada
33 CESCO - Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation
34 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
35 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
36 LPO - Ligue pour la Protection des Oiseaux
37 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
38 Museum für Naturkunde [Berlin]
39 SREL - Savannah River Ecology Laboratory
40 TMU - Tokyo Metropolitan University [Tokyo]
41 UW - University of Wyoming
42 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
43 Imperial College London
44 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
45 Poznan University of Life Sciences
46 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
47 Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
48 ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution
49 ISU - Iowa State University
50 Department of Biological Sciences [Auburn]
51 UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley]
52 TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin
2 UCC - University College Cork
3 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
4 UM - Université de Montpellier
5 NIOO-KNAW - Netherlands Institute of Ecology
6 University of Leeds
7 Palacky University Olomouc
8 UA - University of Antwerp
9 NRM - Swedish Museum of Natural History
10 Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
11 EEZA - Experimental Station of Arid Zones
12 Universidad de Sevilla = University of Seville
13 UTRGV - University of Texas Rio Grande Valley [Brownsville, TX]
14 Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona
15 UKCEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
16 SETE - Station d'écologie théorique et expérimentale
17 UEX - Universidad de Extremadura - University of Extremadura
18 Cornell University [New York]
19 LMU - Ludwig-Maximilians University [Munich]
20 University of Hyogo
21 University of Turku
22 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries = Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals
23 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
24 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim]
25 University of Gloucestershire [Gloucester]
26 EMU - Estonian University of Life Sciences
27 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
28 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
29 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
30 Institute for Landscape and Open Space
31 University of Ottawa [Ottawa]
32 UGR - Universidad de Granada = University of Granada
33 CESCO - Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la COnservation
34 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
35 UZH - Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich
36 LPO - Ligue pour la Protection des Oiseaux
37 UMR ISEM - Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier
38 Museum für Naturkunde [Berlin]
39 SREL - Savannah River Ecology Laboratory
40 TMU - Tokyo Metropolitan University [Tokyo]
41 UW - University of Wyoming
42 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
43 Imperial College London
44 CAM - University of Cambridge [UK]
45 Poznan University of Life Sciences
46 Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
47 Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
48 ESE - Ecologie Systématique et Evolution
49 ISU - Iowa State University
50 Department of Biological Sciences [Auburn]
51 UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley]
52 TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin
Viktoriia Radchuk
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 797072
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3072-0095
Céline Teplitsky
- Fonction : Auteur
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Martijn van de Pol
- Fonction : Auteur
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Anne Charmantier
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : anne-charmantier
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- IdRef : 113985886
Jean Clobert
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-5238-4331
Thomas Hickler
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-4668-7552
Jean-Baptiste Mihoub
- Fonction : Auteur
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- IdHAL : jb-mihoub
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- IdRef : 144503220
James Mills
- Fonction : Auteur
François Rousset
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 19671
- IdHAL : francois-rousset
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4670-0371
- IdRef : 073298182
Juan Carlos Senar
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-9955-3892
Kirsten Thonicke
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 778135
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5283-4937
Juha Merilä
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 853410
Anders Pape Møller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1368599
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3739-4675
- IdRef : 070381879
F. Stephen Dobson
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0001-5562-6316
Marcel Visser
- Fonction : Auteur
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-1456-1939
Résumé
Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications , to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.
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