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Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Viktoriia Radchuk 1 Thomas Reed 2 Céline Teplitsky 3 Martijn van de Pol 4 Anne Charmantier 3 Christopher Hassall 5 Peter Adamik 6 Frank Adriaensen 7 Markus Ahola 8 Peter Arcese 9 Jesús Miguel Avilés 10 Javier Balbontin 11 Karl Berg 12 Antoni Borras 13 Sarah Burthe 14 Jean Clobert 15 Nina Dehnhard 7 Florentino de Lope 16 André Dhondt 17 Niels Dingemanse 18 Hideyuki Doi 19 Tapio Eeva 20 Joerns Fickel 1 Iolanda Filella 21 Frode Fossøy 22, 23 Anne Goodenough 24 Stephen Hall 25 Bengt Hansson 26 Michael Harris 14 Dennis Hasselquist 26 Thomas Hickler 27 Jasmin Joshi 28, 29 Heather Kharouba 30 Juan Gabriel Martínez 31 Jean-Baptiste Mihoub 32 James Mills Mercedes Molina-Morales 16 Arne Moksnes 33 Arpat Ozgul 34 Deseada Parejo 16 Philippe Pilard Maud Poisbleau 7 François Rousset 35 Mark-Oliver Rödel 36 David Scott 37 Juan Carlos Senar 13 Constantí Stefanescu 21 Bård Stokke 33, 22 Tamotsu Kusano 38 Maja Tarka 26 Corey Tarwater 39 Kirsten Thonicke 40 Jack Thorley 41, 42 Andreas Wilting 1 Piotr Tryjanowski 43 Juha Merilä 44 Ben Sheldon 45 Anders Pape Møller 46 Erik Matthysen 7 Fredric Janzen 47 F. Stephen Dobson 48 Marcel Visser 4 Steven Beissinger 49 Alexandre Courtiol 1 Stephanie Kramer-Schadt 1, 50
Abstract : Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications , to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02290363
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Viktoriia Radchuk, Thomas Reed, Céline Teplitsky, Martijn van de Pol, Anne Charmantier, et al.. Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2019, 10 (1), pp.3109. ⟨10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4⟩. ⟨hal-02290363⟩

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