Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change - Université de Montpellier Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Année : 2019

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

Heike Lotze
  • Fonction : Auteur
Derek Tittensor
  • Fonction : Auteur
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tyler Eddy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Manuel Barange
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 858774
Nicolas Barrier
Daniele Bianchi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Julia Blanchard
Laurent Bopp
Matthias Büchner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Catherine Bulman
  • Fonction : Auteur
David Carozza
  • Fonction : Auteur
Miranda Jones
  • Fonction : Auteur
Steve Mackinson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Olivier Maury
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tilla Roy
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 874017
José Fernandes
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 896376
Charles Stock
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jan Volkholz
  • Fonction : Auteur
Boris Worm
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Climate change can affect the distribution and abundance of marine life, with consequences for goods and services provided to people. Because different models can lead to divergent conclusions about marine futures, we present an integrated global ocean assessment of climate change impacts using an ensemble of multiple climate and ecosystem models. It reveals that global marine animal biomass will decline under all emission scenarios, driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. Notably, climate change impacts are amplified at higher food web levels compared with phytoplankton. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the global ocean to date and can inform adaptive management and conservation of marine resources under climate change.While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
12907.full.pdf (1.22 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-02272161 , version 1 (01-06-2021)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Heike Lotze, Derek Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler Eddy, William Cheung, et al.. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2019, 116 (26), pp.12907-12912. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1900194116⟩. ⟨hal-02272161⟩
290 Consultations
57 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More