Ensemble model to enhance robustness of flash flood forecasting using an Artificial Neural Network: case-study on the Gardon Basin (south-eastern France)

T. Darras 1, 2, 3 A. Johannet 3 B. Vayssade 3 L. Kong-A-Siou S. Pistre 1, 2
1 HSM - Hydrosciences Montpellier
2 Karst - Karst et aquifères hétérogènes - Hydrogéologie et transferts
HSM - Hydrosciences Montpellier
3 LGEI - Laboratoire de Génie de l'Environnement Industriel
Abstract : During the last few decades neural networks have been increasingly used in hydrological modelling for their fundamental property of parsimony and of universal approximation of non-linear functions. For the purpose of flash flood forecasting, feed-forward and recurrent multi-layer perceptrons appear to be efficient tools. Nevertheless, their forecasting performances are sensitive to the initialization of the network parameters. We have studied the cross-validation efficiency to select initialization providing the best forecasts in real time situation. Sensitivity to initialization of feed-forward and recurrent models is compared for one-hour lead-time forecasts. This study shows that cross-validation is unable to select the best initialization. A more robust model has been designed using the median of several models outputs; in this context, this paper analyses the design of the ensemble model for both recurrent and feed-forward models.
Keywords : cross validation flash flood forecasting model selection neural network
Type de document :
Communication dans un congrès
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https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-02128571
Contributeur : Pascale Roussel <>
Soumis le : mardi 14 mai 2019 - 13:44:22
Dernière modification le : dimanche 16 février 2020 - 01:02:50

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  • HAL Id : hal-02128571, version 1

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UNIV-MONTPELLIER | EM-ALES | CNRS | AGROPOLIS | B3ESTE | INSTITUT-TELECOM

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T. Darras, A. Johannet, B. Vayssade, L. Kong-A-Siou, S. Pistre. Ensemble model to enhance robustness of flash flood forecasting using an Artificial Neural Network: case-study on the Gardon Basin (south-eastern France). ITISE 2016 (International work-conference on Time Series), Jun 2016, Grenade, Spain. ⟨hal-02128571⟩

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