Article Dans Une Revue PeerJ Année : 2021

Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos

Mauricio Diazgranados
Carolina Tovar
Thomas Etherington
Carolina Castellanos-Castro
  • Fonction : Auteur
Manuel Galvis Rueda
  • Fonction : Auteur
Suzette G.A. Flantua

Résumé

Background: The paramos, the high-elevation ecosystems of the northern Andes, are well-known for their high species richness and provide a variety of ecosystem services to local subsistence-based communities and regional urbanizations. Climate change is expected to negatively affect the provision of these services, but the level of this impact is still unclear. Here we assess future climate change impact on the ecosystem services provided by the critically important paramos of the department of Boyaca in Colombia, of which over 25% of its territory is paramo. Methods: We first performed an extensive literature review to identify useful species of Boyaca, and selected 103 key plant species that, based on their uses, support the provision of ecosystem services in the paramos. We collated occurrence information for each key species and using a Mahalanobis distance approach we applied climate niche modelling for current and future conditions. Results: We show an overall tendency of reduction in area for all ecosystem services under future climate conditions (mostly a loss of 10% but reaching up to a loss of 40%), but we observe also increases, and responses differ in intensity loss. Services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. Responses are less extreme than those projected for individual species but are often complex because a given ecosystem service is provided by several species. As the level of functional or ecological redundancy between species is not yet known, there is an urgency to expand our knowledge on paramos ecosystem services for more species. Our results are crucial for decision-makers, social and conservation organizations to support sustainable strategies to monitor and mitigate the potential consequences of climate change for human livelihoods in mountainous settings.

Dates et versions

hal-04904617 , version 1 (21-01-2025)

Identifiants

Citer

Mauricio Diazgranados, Carolina Tovar, Thomas Etherington, Paula Rodríguez-Zorro, Carolina Castellanos-Castro, et al.. Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos. PeerJ, 2021, 9, pp.e11370. ⟨10.7717/peerj.11370⟩. ⟨hal-04904617⟩
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